The Uncertain Science of Certainty

From the medieval Islamic world to the recent pandemic, scientific progress has relied on different methods of establishing fact from fiction. Today, in the face of ever-increasing disinformation, how we prove things – to ourselves and others – has never felt more urgent. But there is far more to proof than axioms, theories and scientific laws: when demonstrating that an experimental medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone’s guilt, or deciding whether to trust a new type of financial transaction, weighing up evidence is rarely simple. Bestselling author, statistician and epidemiologist Adam Kucharski ranges across science, politics, philosophy and economics to explore how truth emerges – and why it falters.

Adam Kucharski is a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. A mathematician by training, his work on global outbreaks has included Ebola, Zika and COVID-19, and he has advised multiple governments and health agencies. He is a TED senior fellow and winner of the University of Cambridge Adams Prize and the Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize.